“This is a really difficult moment, one of the most difficult moments in Manchester United’s history and we have to deal with it with fairness,” commented Ruben Amorim after the Red Devils slumped to a fourth successive defeat in all competitions.
The opening 30 minutes Man Utd lost 2-0 to Newcastle to end a miserable 2024 they were as sharp as we’ve seen at Old Trafford in the 11-and-a-half year post-Fergie mess.
The 64-year-old midfield pivot was flustered and puffed as the Magpies’ magnificent pivot relentlessly combined past the sluggish veterans to provide an early strike.
Stability followed when Kobbie Mainoo entered the fray, but United’s fate was sealed when Amorim picked his team.
The new head coach’s task was seismic upon arrival, but very few would have relegation on their bingo card in 2024/25. Within two months of taking the job, Amorim said it was “really clear” United were in conflict.
After Ipswich Town secured their first home win of the season against Chelsea, United are now just seven points clear of the relegation zone. They’re a poor side who don’t seem to be improving under one of the continent’s best managers, but the Red Devils certainly aren’t ready for their first relegation since 1974, are they?
We are talking about Manchester United here.
Despite their decline and bleak short-term outlook, General suggests that the real chances of United actually going to the Championship this season are slim.
In the last 10,000 simulations run by their supercomputer, the Red Devils have been relegated just 15 times (0.15%).
They collected 22 points at the halfway point of the 2024/25 campaign. and they are on course for 44 points at the current rate, but that trajectory shrinks a bit when you consider their record under Amorim. United collect 0.88 points per game with the Portuguese coach at the helm, which would mean that they will end the season with 39 points.
Both impacts would be United’s worst in Premier League history. 59 points in the 2021/22 season. was their weakest performance in the 2024/25 season..
According to the official website of the Premier Leagueteams usually avoid relegation by winning 36 points, but there have been six instances in a 38-game season where clubs have been relegated with 39 or more points. The last time this happened was in Blackpool in 2010/11. Teams have been relegated after much worse Premier League seasons in recent times. Last season, for example, 18th-place Luton Town recorded a paltry 26 points.
Relegation is unlikely, but the fact that we’re having this mid-season debate at all is a damning indictment of United’s ever-increasing decline. General predicts Amorim’s side will finish in a lowly 12th place when all is said and done, but a busy January could swallow the whole project.
Southampton visit Old Trafford on January 16with the goal of pushing United into a state of utter desperation.
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