Pakistan Central Bank is likely to achieve six flat rates of reduction for the Economy-Reuters survey by Reuters
Ariba Shahid
Karachi (Reuters) – It is expected that the Pakistan Central Bank will reduce its key interest rate by at least 1 percentage on Monday, analysts said in its sixth straight reduction, as it tries to revive economic and business feelings that inflation rapidly slowing down.
The central bank reduced the rates by 900 BPS with a maximum of 22% in June 2024, in one of the most aggressive moves among central emergence banks and overturned 625 BPS in reducing the rate it made in 2020 during Covid -19 pandemic.
Medium expectations of fifteen analysts reviewed by Reuters is intended for Pakistan State Bank to lower rates for 100 base points (BPS). Only one analyst expects the bank to keep rates of 13%.
Of the 14 analysts who expect a rate reduction, 11 expect a reduction of 100 BPS, the central bank is expected to reduce rates by 150 BPS, and two expect to chop rates by 200 BPS.
Ahmad Mobeen, a Senior Economist from S&P Global Market Intelligence, said his 150 BPS decrease prognosis “encouraged a low December inflation and a stable course that supported a healthier current account.”
The South Asian country is moving the challenging path of economic recovery and in September there was a $ 7 billion plant in September from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Pakistan’s consumer inflation rate slowed down over 6-1/2-year-old low than 4.1%in December, mainly due to the high base before it was. This was below the government forecast and much lower than the maximum of more than a decade of about 40% in May 2023.
The Central Bank, in her statement about politics, in December, she noted that she expects the inflation on average “significantly below” this year earlier forecasts of 11.5% to 13.5%.
However, inflation can be picked up in May because the effect of the basic year is worn out, said Saad Hanif, research analyst at Ismail Iqbal Securities.
This is “in addition to other risks for inflation, including an increase in energy tariffs, new taxes and potential increase in oil prices,” said Hanif, who expects a reduction of 100 BPS.
# Name/ expectation of organization
1. Al Habib capital market -100
2. Ammar Habib Khan -100
3. Arif Habib Limited -100
4. AWT investment 0
5. Capital Global -100
6. Frim Ventures -100
7. Intermarket value papers -100
8. Ismail Iqbal value papers -100
9. JG Global -100
10. K store -100
11. Lakson Investments -200
12. But Kuwait Investment Company -100
13. S & P Global Market Intelligence -150
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15. Ukair Younus -200
Median -100
