In recent weeks, millions of Israelis have been awakened at night and forced into shelters by incoming missiles – not from Gaza, Lebanon or Iran, but from Yemen’s Houthi militants.
With Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic itself weakened and humiliated after 15 months of conflict with Israel, the Houthis have presented themselves as the main Palestinian regional defenders and the last bastion of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” still attacking Israel.
Despite morbid jokes on Israeli social media calling them the country’s new “alarm clock”, the Houthis have become a painful reminder for Israelis that the war is not over. Their ballistic missiles twice evaded air defenses, wounding 16 people in the Tel Aviv area.
“I call them the ‘last proxy,'” said Amos Yadlin, the former head of Israel’s military intelligence service. “The Israeli system took time, but now it is well understood. . . they should be moved to the top of the priority list.”
Israeli officials say they will do just that, launching multiple long-range airstrikes against Yemen, the latest of which targeted ports and power plants on Friday. “The Houthis are paying and will continue to pay a high price for their aggression against us,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
But analysts and former officials warn that the Houthis, located 2,000 km away, present a vastly different and more complex challenge than their closer opponents.
The battle-hardened Islamist movement controls northern Yemen and has withstood a multi-year bombing campaign led by Saudi Arabia during the country’s civil war.
Following Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, the Houthis began firing on merchant ships near Yemen’s coast and launching armed drones and missiles at Israel, saying they were acting in solidarity with the Palestinians. Their attacks severely disrupted shipping through one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes and effectively closed the Israeli port of Eilat.
A naval task force led by the US and Britain has so far failed to halt the fire, despite bombardment of Houthi weapons platforms and command centers.
“The [international] the coalition failed to deter the Houthis. . . and initially as of October 2023 there was no response from Israel,” said Ely Karmon, senior research fellow at the International Counterterrorism Institute at Reichman University.
Unlike Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria or Iran, the Houthis were not a priority for Israel’s military and security services, according to one person familiar with the matter, and intelligence on them was “close to zero” before October 7. Correcting this would “take time,” they added.
Since last summer, Israeli warplanes have directly attacked Yemen on five occasions, starting with Hodeidah and other sea passes, followed by power stations further inland and now the capital Sana’a – including the international airport.
Each such operation, one of the most extensive in the history of the Israeli Air Force, required dozens of fighter jets and aerial refueling – far more complex than the short flights required in neighboring Gaza, Lebanon or Syria.
While Israel’s bombardments have been painful and costly for Yemen — particularly the destruction in Hodeida, a vital supply artery to the populous north — Yemeni analysts say they have not deterred the Houthis or dealt significant military blows.
Mohammed al-Basha, founder of risk analysis newsletter Basha Report, said the group has managed to decentralize oil imports from large fuel depots directly to trucks, while most households in Sana’a get their electricity from private sources. Flights at Sana’a airport resumed shortly after the Israeli attack last month.
However, the Yemeni people are likely to pay the toll – especially if food imports are restricted and fuel prices rise.
“The main effect is humanitarian. . . it doesn’t weaken the Houthis and it doesn’t really bother them because they don’t really care what happens to civilians,” said Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies.
But by boosting the group’s profile, the attacks on Israel have helped divert the Houthis’ attention from problems at home.
The Palestinian cause “is the only thing they get public support for in Yemen or elsewhere,” Iryani said. “A heroic demeanor is very attractive and people cheer for it, regardless of the cost.”
Israel seems intent on testing how much pain the Yemeni people, and thus the Houthis, can absorb. Several Israeli analysts said an escalation of attacks on key state infrastructure such as ports and energy facilities was likely, while stopping arms smuggling routes from Iran was also a priority.
“There is no organization in the world responsible for territory that cannot be deterred,” Yadlin said, adding that incoming US President Donald Trump could give Israel a freer hand in this regard.
Some in Israel argue that the goal should be to topple the Houthi regime by providing military support to the group’s opponents and factions loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognized government in the south.
Direct Israeli involvement in the Yemeni civil war would have historical precedent. Israel’s Mossad security agency and its air force aided British intelligence and special forces in the so-called “secret war” in Yemen in the 1960s, arming royalist forces against Egyptian-backed republicans.
Israeli officials also said Houthi leaders are now targeted for assassination, particularly the group’s commander, Abdul Malik al-Houthi.
Karmon, one of Israel’s foremost experts on the Houthis, argues that eliminating the charismatic Abdul Malik would lead to the “collapse of the group’s rule.”
But targeting its leaders and missile arsenals will not be easy.
Analysts believe that Abdul Malik is likely to be in the far north of Yemen, in the mountainous stronghold of Saad’s Houthis. But access to Saada — both for ordinary Yemenis and for foreign spy agencies — is extremely challenging for anyone but locals, Basha said.
“No matter how strong the army is, no matter how sophisticated it is, you cannot bomb a mountain,” said Farea al-Muslimi, a researcher at the Chatham House think-tank. He added that centuries-old attempts to subdue local fighters by bombing have failed.
“The Ottomans tried it, the Egyptians tried it, the Saudis tried it, the Emirates tried it. Force makes no difference. . . you can’t force them.”
Cartography by Steven Bernard
