Israel and Hamas may be moving closer to agreeing a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release, but hurdles remain

Officials in the US and Israel said Israel and Hamas were close to agreeing to a ceasefire and the release of hostages on Monday, after midnight “breakthrough” talks.

Qatar, which mediated, reportedly gave Israel and Hamas the draft on Monday ceasefire agreement to end the war in Gaza, the Reuters news agency reported, citing an official familiar with the talks.

“I think there is increasing pressure for Hamas to agree, and I think Israel has also achieved a large part of its military objectives in Gaza, and so they are in a position to say ‘yes,'” US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters.

Sullivan said Israel and Hamas have come close to a deal before and things have broken down, but on Monday there was a “general sense that this is moving in the right direction.”

“The question now is can we all seize the moment together and make this happen?” Sullivan said.

“We are in an advanced stage of negotiations,” an Israeli political source told CBS News, saying a deal could be reached within hours or days. “There is progress in all components of the agreement formula.”

What’s going on with the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire talks?

Israel and Hamas have been conducting indirect negotiations for more than a year with the aim of ending it the war in Gaza and the return of dozens of hostages in exchange for Palestinians detained by Israel.

The Biden administration has pushed for a deal before the end of his term and Trump’s inauguration on January 20. On Sunday, President Biden spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the ongoing negotiations. The White House said the two leaders had discussed a deal based on a deal outlined by Mr. Biden last year.

The deal presented to Israel and Hamas appears similar to that deal, according to a copy of the agreement from intermediate sources seen by CBS News and a senior Israeli official.

The deal consists of three phases, according to a copy reviewed by CBS News, and each will be negotiated as things move forward.

During the first phase, which would take place during a 42-day ceasefire period, Hamas would release 33 women and children held hostage, as well as hostages over the age of 50. For every woman or child hostage returned to Israel, Israel would release 30 Palestinian women and children from its prisons. Hamas would release all hostages over the age of 50, and Israel would release 30 Palestinian prisoners over the age of 50.

On the first day of that truce, Hamas would release 3 hostages, according to a document seen by CBS News. On the seventh day, Hamas would release 4 hostages. After that, Hamas would release 3 hostages taken from Israel every seven days, starting with the living and then returning the bodies of those who died.

During the hostage and prisoner exchange, there would be a complete ceasefire in Gaza to allow aid to enter, according to the draft seen by CBS News. International humanitarian groups and the United Nations would resume work in Gaza, and the reconstruction of its infrastructure, such as water, electricity and sewage systems, would begin. The next phase of the deal would also be negotiated.

The second phase of the deal would include the release of all Israeli male hostages and the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, according to the document seen by CBS News.

The third phase, which would be negotiated in part during the earlier phases, would involve the exchange of the bodies of deceased hostages and prisoners, the beginning of the reconstruction of Gaza and the opening of its borders.

Despite intensive mediation by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, the talks have stalled repeatedly over several key issues including the details of the exchange, whether the ceasefire will be permanent and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.

As both sides accused the other of retreating, the war continued.

Dozens of Palestinians are killed every day in Israeli attacks, and most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are crammed into squalid tent camps, their neighborhoods in ruins. Aid groups are struggling to deliver desperately needed aid, and experts are warning of famine.

In Israel, the families of the hostages have held weekly rallies to demand a deal for their release, fearing that their loved ones will die in the harsh conditions of captivity the longer the fighting goes on.

What were the main points of contention in reaching the ceasefire agreement?

Hamas and other groups are still holding about 100 hostages in the October 7, 2023, attack in southern Israel that ignited the war, in which militants killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapped about 250. The Israeli military declared a third of the hostages dead , but he suspects the real number could be around half.

Hamas is demanding the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners, including senior militants convicted of organizing attacks that killed civilians. Israel is reluctant to release such prisoners, especially since one of the masterminds of the 2023 attack is the leader of Hamas Yahya Sinwarwho was killed by Israel in October, was a former prisoner released in such a deal.

The two sides exchanged lists of names, with Israel demanding more information about which hostages were alive to ensure they were the first to come out.

Hamas said it would not release the remaining hostages without guarantees that the war would end. Israel’s military offensive has killed more than 46,000 people in Gaza, most of them women and children, according to local health authorities, who have not said how many of the dead were militants.

Hamas probably fears that Israel will resume its offensive – and increase its intensity – once the hostages are out and the militants no longer have their most valuable bargaining chip.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to do just that. He said Israel will not end the war until it destroys Hamas’ military and governance capabilities and ensures the Palestinian militant group no longer poses a threat.

The lack of trust goes both ways: Israelis fear that Hamas will drag out negotiations on the second phase of the deal, extending the ceasefire indefinitely while the hostages languish.

The talks almost broke down due to disagreements

Talks nearly collapsed last summer when Netanyahu said Israel would maintain a permanent presence in the Philadelphia Corridor, a strip of land along the Gaza-Egypt border.

Israel says Hamas has long smuggled weapons into Gaza through tunnels under the corridor and that it must control the area to prevent Hamas from rebuilding. Egypt, a key mediator, says it blocked the tunnels years ago and opposes any Israeli presence on its side of the border with Gaza.

Israel also asked for a mechanism to inspect people returning to their homes in northern Gaza, where about a million people fled after Israel ordered an evacuation at the start of the war. Their return is a key demand of Hamas, the details of which are still being worked out.

Israel says people returning to the north should be searched for weapons. This would likely require an Israeli presence in what is known as the Netzarim Corridor, a strip of closed roads and military installations that stretch from the border to the sea south of Gaza City.

Palestinians oppose any permanent Israeli occupation, although Hamas has reportedly shown flexibility over the timing of an Israeli withdrawal.

Israel says Hamas can never rule Gaza again, but has yet to approve a realistic plan for an alternative government. With no internal rivals, Hamas was able to regroup quickly after Israeli operations, even in the worst-hit areas, and still controls much of the territory.

The Biden administration has long pushed for a grand settlement in which a reformed Palestinian Authority would govern post-war Gaza with the support of Arab and Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, which would also take the historic step of forging ties with Israel.

But Arab and Muslim leaders say they will sign off on such plans only if they include a path to a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank, east Jerusalem annexed by Israel and Gaza, territories Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war.

The Israeli government opposes Palestinian statehood and has ruled out any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Netanyahu says Israel will maintain unlimited security control while delegating governance to politically independent Palestinians. But no one appears to have volunteered, and Hamas has threatened anyone who cooperates with Israel in managing the territory.

Hamas, however, has said it is willing to cede control of Gaza to other Palestinians. Late last year, it agreed to an Egyptian-brokered plan for a group of independent people to govern the territory under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority, which has yet to accept the proposal.

Hamas has also demanded an end to the blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt after they took power in 2007, which experts say is needed to rebuild Gaza.

However, lifting the blockade would allow Hamas to achieve a major victory and eventually rebuild its military capabilities. It’s another non-starter for Israel.

Haley Ott, Marwan Al-Ghoul, Michal Ben-Gal and Mais Al-Bayaa contributed to this report.