Israel and Hamas are “on the verge” of agreeing to a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of hostages held there, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Tuesday, raising hopes for some respite in violence after more than 15 months of war.
“It’s right on the edge, it’s closer than ever before,” Mr. Blinken said at an Atlantic Council event in Washington. “But now as we sit here we await the final word from Hamas on acceptance. And until we get that word, we’re going to stay on the edge.”
A person familiar with the negotiations said on Tuesday night that Israel and Hamas had reached an agreement, and both appeared ready to publicly accept it in the very near future. The person, who requested anonymity because the deal has not been made public, said the atmosphere was tense but hopeful.
Neither Israeli nor Hamas officials have publicly confirmed their position on the cease-fire proposal, although Mr. Blinken suggested that Israel agrees with the agreement and that the fate of the agreement is now in the hands of Hamas.
Negotiators said Hamas appeared ready to accept the deal, including its details on the exchange of Palestinian prisoners for hostages and the specific movements of Israeli troops as they withdraw from positions in Gaza, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
But the person cautioned that the agreement has more than 100 separate parts and that no diplomatic deal of this complexity can ever be considered completely done until the parties make it public.
US officials have in the past made upbeat comments about the ceasefire talks. only for the negotiations to keep breaking off accusing each other. And representatives of other mediating countries, including Qatar and Egypt, warned that even substantial progress could be derailed at the last minute.
“We believe we are in the final stages, but until we get an announcement – there won’t be,” Majed al-Ansari, a spokesman for Qatar’s foreign ministry, told reporters on Tuesday.
However, in recent weeks, officials familiar with the talks expressed greater hope of reaching an agreement. The mediators “managed to minimize many disagreements between both sides,” Mr. al-Ansari said, adding that they were focused on “the final details of reaching an agreement.”
Officials from both the Israeli government and Hamas have suggested they are willing to move forward if the other side signs on. On Monday, a Hamas official said a deal was possible in the coming days as long as Israel did not suddenly change its stance. On Tuesday, an Israeli official said Israel was ready to close the deal and was waiting for Hamas to make a decision.
Some officials also suggested the looming deadline helped close the gap: the end of President Biden’s term and the Jan. 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald J. Trump. The deadline helped negotiators put pressure on both Israel and Hamas to speed up their decision – coming after months of agonizing delay.
Mr. Trump warned that there will be “hell to pay” unless the hostages are released by the time he becomes president. Steve Witkoff, his pick for Middle East envoy, also traveled to Qatar and Israel, meeting with top officials, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
American officials said Mr. Witkoff was an important player supporting him in the ceasefire talks. He was not involved in the intricate details of the deal, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. But he made it clear to all parties that Mr. Trump wants a deal reached immediately.
They also said momentum for a deal with Hamas was accelerated after Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah reached their own agreement on a ceasefire at the end of November. That agreement helped isolate Hamasaccording to a person familiar with the negotiations, who said the talks became more productive at that point.
“I pray that this time the return is real,” said Manar Silmi, 34, a psychologist who hopes to return to the home in Gaza she fled at the beginning of the war. “We have suffered more than enough.”
In a statement, Hamas said the negotiations had “reached the final stage.” The leadership of the Palestinian armed group “hoped that this round of negotiations would end with a full and clear agreement,” Hamas said.
Hamas officials negotiating in Doha must get the consent of the remaining military commanders inside Gaza for the deal. But communicating with them can be difficult as they are believed to be mostly in hiding, often leading to delays. Among them is Mohammad Sinwar, whose brother Yahya led the group before he became one killed Israel.
It is still unclear whether Mr. Sinwar has conveyed his position on the ceasefire proposal to Hamas leaders in Doha.
The framework agreement is largely inspired by previous proposals discussed in May and July, said a diplomat familiar with the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the volatile negotiations. Those proposals detailed a three-phase ceasefire in which Israeli troops would gradually withdraw from Gaza, while Hamas would release hostages in exchange for Palestinians jailed by Israel.
For more than a year, international efforts have failed to end the war that began with an attack led by Hamas in October 2023 that killed around 1,200 people. Another 250 people were taken hostage in Gaza, according to Israeli authorities.
In response, Israel launched a military campaign against Hamas that destroyed much of the enclave and killed at least 45,000 people, according to Gaza health officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and fighters.
About 105 hostages were freed during a week-long ceasefire in November 2023. The bodies of others were recovered by Israeli soldiers, and a handful were rescued alive. Approximately 98 hostages are believed to remain in Gaza, of which 36 are presumed dead by Israeli authorities.
During the first phase of the proposed cease-fire – which would last about six weeks – Hamas would release 33 named hostages, most of whom Israel believes are alive, said an Israeli official who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations. Israel is willing to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange, the official said, but the number depends on how many hostages are still alive.
Eli Albag, whose daughter Liri, 19, was abducted from the military base where she was serving during the Hamas-led attack, met with Mr Netanyahu on Tuesday night along with other relatives of the hostages.
Mr. Netanyahu projected optimism, Mr. Albag. But he said it’s still hard for him to think about what it would be like to welcome his daughter home.
“We want to see the contract signed first,” he said. “After that, we’ll make room for other thoughts.”
While there is considerable public pressure in Israel to reach a deal to release the hostages, many Israelis also fear that a ceasefire would leave Hamas in power in Gaza, allowing it to regroup and plan new attacks.
Two of Netanyahu’s hardline coalition allies — Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — have already denounced the proposed deal as an effective surrender to Hamas. Their two far-right parties could threaten Mr Netanyahu’s government if they withdraw from his ruling coalition over their opposition to the deal.
But if lawmakers were to seek a vote of no confidence in parliament, they would likely fight to topple Mr. Netanyahu’s government immediately. The opposition parties have generally pledged to support Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition, if necessary, to ensure the implementation of a deal that would release the hostages.
In Gaza, Montaser Bahja, a displaced English teacher who took refuge in Gaza City, said Palestinians were beginning to feel hopeful about the deal after more than a year of hunger and deprivation.
But even if both sides declared a ceasefire, many Gazans were fearful of their uncertain post-war future, Mr Bahja said. Even if the Hamas deal secured the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, few would see it as an achievement given the scale of the death and destruction in Gaza, he added.
“It’s all up in the air,” he said. “At this point, people just want it to end.”
Ismael Naar and Edward Wong contributed reporting.
