Japan Governor Japan Kazuo Ueda answers questions during the Governor’s interview on Japanese inflation and monetary policy at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Autumn World Bank meeting in Washington, USA, October 2, 2024.
Kaylee Greenlee Beal | Reuters
Japan’s bank has increased rates by 25 base points on Friday to 0.5%, which has led to a policy rate to the highest level since 2008, as it seeks to normalize its monetary policy.
This move comes in accordance with the expectations of the CNBC research from January 15 to 20, in which he saw The extensive majority of economists envisages a trip.
After the decision, Japanese yen A marginal trade on 156.09 compared to the dollar is weakened, while the country’s reference value Nikkei 225 The stock index increased 0.59%.
Higher battlefield officials, including Governor Cazuo Uede and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, cited the central bank’s willingness to increase the rates.
The battle will carefully observe the “shunto” salaries negotiations, and hopes to see “strong salaries in the fiscal year in 2025,” Himino said in his speech to business leaders on January 14th.
In notes 21 January, Vincent Chung, a manager of the Su-Portfelt for a diverse income strategy at T. Rowe Price, said that the movement of the rates will follow “a series of gradual increases, potentially adopting a policy rate of up to 1% by the end of the year. “
He added that the policy rate could even exceed 1%, because it is closer to the lower end of the battle of the neutral range of the rate.
In September, a member of the Bojan Board of Naki Tamura said the neutral rate “It would be at least about 1 percent,” although the battle does not have an official prognosis of a neutral rate.
Chung noted that although Japanese officials indicated that Jen volatility was significant, any significant currency intervention similar to the last year seems unlikely.
Last July Jen hit its weakest level over the dollar since 1986reaching 161,96. Japanese authorities later confirmed that they had spent 5.53 trillion yenOr $ 36.8 billion, in order to increase yen in July.
Japan spent over 15.32 trillion yen ($ 97.06 billion) to increase currency during 2024.
Chung said that inflation in the US could increase later in this quarter, and together with permanent economic growth, this could put pressure on the yields, which could strengthen the dollar – weakening Jen.
“Investors also need to take into account that with potential large shifts of policies in trade and the Fed near a break, a double -sided risk of growth is probably most of this year than in 2024. In the interior 2025, “he concludes.
