Arsenal transfer challenge over striker question: Alexander Isak underlines need for killer but not easy solution in January | Football news
Mikel Arteta’s comments on the Carabao Cup match ball dominated the headlines following Arsenal’s semi-final first leg defeat by Newcastle on Tuesday, but the most revealing response in his press conference concerned the impact of Alexander Isak.
“I don’t think he created or had many chances, but he was involved in both goals, unfortunately, twice when he had the ball in the penalty area,” Arteta said of Isak’s contribution to the win.
“That’s what you have when you have real quality up front.”
It was an unusually frank comment from the Arsenal boss, with the not-so-subtle implication that he doesn’t have strikers of a similar level. Arsenal are of course one of the 25-year-old’s suitors. His performance at the Emirates Stadium showed why.
While Isak made the most of his chances, scoring the first and his only two shots on target for Newcastle’s second, Arsenal finished with nothing to show for it in 23 attempts. Their total of 3.09 expected goals was the highest by a Premier League side without a goal all season.
On the one hand, it is positive that they managed to create so many chances without their most creative player Bukaya Saka, and with Martin Odegaard clearly below par after a bout of illness that limited him to a substitute appearance against Brighton.
But the lack of top-end sharpness became an issue. Tuesday’s game was Arsenal’s sixth clean sheet of the season. There were seven more games in which they scored just once. Only three of those games ended in victory.
Arteta is under scrutiny. As much about his side’s perceived dependence on set-ups as their struggles to convert scoring chances. But he is not the only manager for whom this is a problem.
The percentage of games in which Arsenal have scored no more than one goal is actually the third lowest among Premier League teams this season. The problem is that he is far bigger than Liverpool, the team they are struggling to keep up with at the top of the table.
It’s not news for Arsenal either.
Arsenal set a club record with a total of 91 goals scored in the Premier League last season, but there were eight games in all competitions where they failed to find the back of the net, seven of which ended in defeat. Future champions Manchester City had just four such games during the campaign.
Arteta has built an outstanding defense. Their mistakes against Newcastle were uncharacteristic. But recent history shows the value of firepower, alongside defensive stinginess, when it comes to winning the biggest prizes – and that’s where Arsenal come up short.
Kai Havertz has proven to be an invaluable outlet going forward. His recent goal against Ipswich was his 12th in all competitions and he has posted good numbers after stepping into the role last term. Meanwhile, Gabriel Jesus is on his best scoring run since joining Arsenal.
But both players are maddeningly frustrating finishers, something that is clearly evident in the underlying data.
While Arsenal’s supporting forwards have outperformed their expected targets to varying degrees over the last three seasons, even taking into account recent slumps, their 9s have done the opposite.
According to Opti’s Expected Goals Model, Havertz and Jesus scored about five goals less than they should have, based on the quality of their chances. For Havertz, Tuesday’s game, when he missed 1.13 xG worth of opportunities, is typical of the problem.
Why are Isak, Cunha and Mbeumo complaining?
The timing was particularly unfortunate given the moves of his opposite player Isak at the other end of the pitch.
His goal was his 10th in his last nine games, 15th of the season and 50th in 89 appearances since joining Newcastle from Real Sociedad for £63m in 2022.
There is no exact science to the art of scoring goals. But the best finishers tend to score more goals than ‘expected’, often aided by an ability to convert difficult chances as well as simpler ones, something that usually translates into a consistent xG dominance.
These players have a visible sense of decision-making in marginal games, and Isak is certainly one of them. Core data for the last three seasons shows that he has scored almost four more goals than expected, scoring 44 Premier League goals at 40.45 xG.
It’s worth noting that Wolves’ Matheus Cunha and Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo, two of Arsenal’s other reported attacking targets, have shown the same ability.
Cunha’s total of 24 goals from 15.6 xG gives him the second highest positive differential among Premier League players with at least 15 goals since the start of the 2022/23 season. Mbeumo, who like Isak recently scored for Arsenal, is not far behind him in the rankings with a total of 31 goals from 25.69 xG.
Arteta is aware of Arsenal’s need for a finisher. His comments at the press conference following Tuesday’s loss to Isak left little room for doubt. But identifying goals is one thing; their insurance, especially in the middle of the season, is another.
Isak is reportedly valued at £150 million. He has little incentive to leave and his club has little incentive to sell as he leads their efforts to win silverware and return to the Champions League. Signing him in the summer would be challenging enough, let alone in January.
Cunha and Mbeumo are equally important to Wolves and Brentford, and while the latter’s contract expires in 18 months, the former is in talks over a new deal.
Arsenal’s other option is to look abroad. But such is the challenge of adapting to the rigors of the Premier League that new arrivals face, particularly mid-season, that the club have generally favored Premier League-ready signings under Arteta.
In other words, there is no simple solution. But Arsenal must do their best to find him even in difficult circumstances. The need for more firepower was evident even before Saka’s injury. Tuesday’s defeat and Arteta’s comments afterwards only highlighted the problem.
